Market Efficiency and the Heterogeneous Impact of Financial Liberalization: Evidence from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect
Market Efficiency and the Heterogeneous Impact of Financial Liberalization: Evidence from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect
This paper investigates the impact of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (SHHK Stock Connect) on the A-H share price premium and examines whether the policy effect is contingent on market efficiency. Using monthly data for 67 Shanghai-listed A-H dual-listed firms from January 2011 to May 2019, the authors employ a dynamic panel model estimated via two-step system GMM to account for the persistence of the premium and potential endogeneity. Market efficiency is proxied by trading-friction measures derived from daily high-low price ranges. The findings indicate that the implementation of SHHK Stock Connect is associated with an average 18.4% increase in the A-H premium. However, this effect is heterogeneous: the marginal impact of the policy is more pronounced for firms operating in less efficient markets and weaker for those with higher efficiency, suggesting that pre-existing trading frictions shape the policy outcome. No significant response is observed at the announcement stage. Placebo tests and alternative efficiency measures confirm the robustness of the efficiency-dependent effect. Overall, the results underscore the importance of the information environment in shaping the outcomes of financial liberalization.
Highlights
- 1The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is associated with an average 18.4% increase in the A-H share price premium.
- 2The policy effect is heterogeneous: it is stronger for firms in less efficient markets and weaker for those in more efficient markets.
- 3No significant announcement effect is found, indicating that the impact materializes only after implementation.
- 4Placebo tests and alternative efficiency measures confirm the robustness of the efficiency-dependent effect.
- 5The study reconciles mixed findings in prior literature by highlighting the role of market efficiency in shaping policy outcomes.
Methods
- MDynamic panel model estimated via two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) to account for persistence and endogeneity.
- MMarket efficiency proxied by trading-friction measures derived from daily high-low price ranges (Corwin and Schultz, 2012).
- MInteraction term between policy indicator and market efficiency to capture heterogeneous effects.
- MPlacebo tests with alternative policy timing and robustness checks using alternative efficiency proxies.
Results
- RThe SHHK Stock Connect implementation increases the A-H premium by 18.4% on average.
- RThe marginal impact of the policy is more pronounced for firms with lower market efficiency and weaker for those with higher efficiency.
- RNo significant response is observed at the announcement stage (April 2014).
- RPlacebo tests with a fake policy date (November 2016) show no significant effect, confirming the results are not driven by time trends.
- RAlternative efficiency measures (relative high-low spread) yield consistent results, supporting the robustness of the efficiency-dependent effect.
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