Multi-period Learning for Financial Time Series Forecasting
Multi-period Learning for Financial Time Series Forecasting
The paper introduces MLF (Multi-period Learning Framework), a novel deep learning framework for financial time series forecasting that simultaneously processes multiple input windows of different lengths (short, medium, long). Unlike existing single-period models, MLF captures both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends by integrating multi-period information. The framework addresses two key challenges: integration of multi-period inputs and computational efficiency. To improve integration, MLF proposes three modules: Multi-period self-Adaptive Patching (MAP) ensures equal patch counts across periods to avoid bias; Inter-period Redundancy Filtering (IRF) removes redundant information between periods to enhance self-attention; and Learnable Weighted-average Integration (LWI) adaptively combines forecasts from different periods. For efficiency, a Patch Squeeze module reduces intra-period redundancy by compressing patches via a lightweight encoder-decoder with reconstruction loss. Experiments on a proprietary fund sales dataset from Alipay and several public benchmarks demonstrate that MLF achieves superior accuracy and efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods. The framework has been deployed in Alipay's fund inventory management system, leading to improved forecast accuracy and operational efficiency.
Highlights
- 1Proposes MLF, a multi-period learning framework that integrates multiple input lengths for financial time series forecasting.
- 2Introduces three novel modules: Inter-period Redundancy Filtering (IRF), Learnable Weighted-average Integration (LWI), and Multi-period self-Adaptive Patching (MAP).
- 3Designs a Patch Squeeze module to reduce computational cost by removing intra-period redundancy.
- 4Achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and efficiency on both proprietary fund sales dataset and public benchmarks.
Methods
- MMulti-period self-Adaptive Patching (MAP): adjusts patch length and stride per period to ensure equal number of patches across periods.
- MInter-period Redundancy Filtering (IRF): removes redundant information between periods in the embedding space to improve self-attention.
- MLearnable Weighted-average Integration (LWI): uses a lightweight CNN and attention mechanism to adaptively weight multi-period forecasts.
- MPatch Squeeze: reduces the number of patches per period via a lightweight encoder-decoder with reconstruction loss.
Results
- RMLF outperforms 10+ baselines (e.g., PatchTST, FiLM, DLinear) on fund sales and public datasets (e.g., Weather, ETT) in MSE and MAE.
- RAblation studies confirm the effectiveness of each module: IRF, LWI, MAP, and Patch Squeeze all contribute to accuracy gains.
- RPatch Squeeze reduces computational cost by up to 40% with negligible accuracy loss.
- RDeployment on Alipay shows improved inventory management and reduced forecast error in production.
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