Follow the Leader: Enhancing Systematic Trend-Following Using Network Momentum

Follow the Leader: Enhancing Systematic Trend-Following Using Network Momentum

Linze Li
William Ferreira
Published on 1/13/2025
Commodities
Futures
Trend-following
Momentum
Backtesting
Risk management

This research paper presents an innovative systematic trend-following strategy for commodity futures markets that significantly enhances traditional approaches by incorporating cross-sectional momentum indicators. The core innovation lies in the development of 'network momentum' - a novel indicator that captures momentum spillover effects between different markets through lead-lag relationships. The authors employ two distinct methods for detecting these lead-lag relationships, allowing the strategy to identify when trending behavior in one market precedes or influences similar behavior in other markets.

The methodology combines these cross-sectional indicators with traditional univariate trend indicators to create a comprehensive trend-following framework. Performance evaluation is conducted using synthetic bootstrapped data samples derived from actual commodity futures price time-series, ensuring robustness and practical relevance. The resulting portfolio demonstrates statistically significant improvements across multiple performance metrics compared to baseline models using only univariate indicators, including enhanced Sharpe ratios, more favorable return skewness, and superior downside protection. This research contributes to the quantitative finance literature by providing a systematic approach to capturing inter-market momentum relationships and offers practical implications for trend-following strategies in commodity futures trading.

Highlights

  • 1Introduces a novel trend-following strategy combining univariate and cross-sectional trend indicators
  • 2Develops a method to compute 'network momentum' capturing momentum spillover effects between markets
  • 3Demonstrates statistically significant performance improvements over baseline models in commodity futures
  • 4Utilizes two methods for detecting lead-lag relationships between different markets
  • 5Applies synthetic bootstrapped data samples from actual price time-series for robust testing

Methods

  • M
    Network momentum computation for capturing cross-market momentum spillover
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    Two distinct methods for detecting lead-lag relationships between commodity futures markets
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    Synthetic bootstrapping from actual price time-series for performance evaluation
  • M
    Portfolio construction using novel trend indicators with comparison to baseline univariate models

Results

  • R
    Statistically significant improvement in Sharpe ratio compared to baseline univariate trend-following
  • R
    Enhanced skewness of returns indicating more favorable return distribution characteristics
  • R
    Improved downside performance metrics demonstrating better risk management
  • R
    Successful capture of momentum spillover effects through network momentum indicators
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    Robust performance validation using bootstrapped data samples from actual market prices
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